If COVID-19 has taught us, anything can happen, several people have called this a Black swan event. A black swan event is a very rare event with serious consequences. After the fact, almost all falsely claim that it must have been anticipated, yet it cannot be expected before the event. The truth of the matter is, a black swan event can occur and there are many reasons why they may occur, but in most cases, you cannot predict it until it happens. This is why we prefer to use the term “Black Swan” to describe unpredictable events.
When a Black Swan event occurs, it is devastating for both businesses and the Economy. For the start-up, the impact is usually felt immediately and can be devastating. But, this does not mean that your business will not survive in the future as several great businesses were lunched or pivoted during this kind of events. Examples are Lego, 20th-century fox etc
If you are an established business owner or CEO and you do not have a good business plan then you could experience severe economic implications. You could experience some severe negative impact on the value of your business, as well as your business reputation, and you could even have the ability to be forced out of business by a lack of demand.
If you are trying to establish a new business, as indicated above, several large and successful businesses started during black swan events and there is no reason that you can’t be the same. It’s about understanding the changing customer environment and the customer behaviours that were triggered by these events.
There is no way to predict when an event like this might occur. But, I would say that the best way to prepare for the event is to make sure you have all your ducks in a row before the event happens. It is always a good idea to make sure you have a good grasp of your budget, profit projections, and a detailed business strategy before your event. Also, it is important to consider whether or not you need financing to get your new business started, as if you do, it may be better to wait until after the event is over to obtain the financing you need as you may have to pivot during this event.
Once an event like a Black Swan occurs, you are not likely to see another one of these ever again. However, your new business will be established and have a great chance of growing rapidly in the future. In the end, you will still have an excellent business, and you will still have a solid business reputation which can last a lifetime.